Nearly three years after the storming of the U.S. Capitol, false election conspiracy theories continue to thrive on social media and cable news, raising concerns about their impact on the upcoming presidential election. The baseless claims, such as suitcases filled with ballots, late-night ballot dumps, and dead people voting, are being fueled by former President Donald Trump and have eroded the safeguards that were put in place after the violent attack. Experts warn that the spread of misinformation will likely be worse this time around as generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools have made it easier and cheaper to create and disseminate false information.

Oren Etzioni, an AI expert and professor emeritus at the University of Washington, expressed his concern, stating, "I expect a tsunami of misinformation. The ingredients are there, and I am completely terrified." The rise of AI deepfakes adds to these concerns. Deepfakes, manipulated images, videos, and audio clips created using sophisticated AI technology, can now be produced in seconds with just a few clicks. These convincing fakes have already made their way into experimental presidential campaign ads and could easily spread on social media without proper labeling, fooling people just days before an election.

Larry Norden, senior director of the elections and government program at the Brennan Center for Justice, highlighted how high-tech fakes have influenced elections globally. For example, AI-generated audio recordings impersonated a liberal candidate in Slovakia, leading to false information being shared widely on social media. These tools could also be used to target specific communities with misleading messages about voting, such as persuasive text messages, false announcements about voting processes on WhatsApp, or bogus websites designed to look like official government ones.

Regulating AI technology is a priority for both Democrats and Republicans in Congress and the Federal Election Commission. However, no rules or legislation have been finalized yet, leaving states to enact their own restrictions. Some states have passed laws requiring deepfakes to be labeled or banning those that misrepresent candidates. Social media companies like YouTube and Meta (formerly Facebook and Instagram) have introduced AI labeling policies, but whether they can consistently catch violators remains to be seen.

In addition to the spread of misinformation, concerns have been raised regarding the fading guardrails on social media platforms. Elon Musk's takeover of Twitter, now known as X, has resulted in significant changes to the platform. Musk dismantled core features, altered the verification system, and gutted the teams responsible for fighting misinformation, leaving users to moderate content themselves. This shift has been applauded by conservatives who viewed previous moderation attempts as censorship, but pro-democracy advocates argue that it has transformed Twitter into an unregulated echo chamber amplifying hate speech and misinformation.

Jesse Lehrich, co-founder of Accountable Tech, a nonprofit watchdog group, noted that Twitter used to be one of the "most responsible" platforms, willing to test features that reduce misinformation. However, the current changes have given other platforms the opportunity to relax their own policies. Meta, YouTube, and X have together removed 17 policies that protected against hate and misinformation, according to a report from Free Press. YouTube, for instance, announced that it would no longer remove content falsely claiming widespread fraud or errors in previous U.S. elections.

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, concerns are mounting about the prevalence of false election conspiracy theories, the rise of AI deepfakes, and the fading guardrails on social media platforms. Experts emphasize the urgent need for regulation and continued efforts to combat misinformation to ensure the integrity of the democratic process.